Flu experts opinion

Date: Tue, 02 May 2006 07:54:42 +0200
From: C Griot
Source: Newsgroups: agen.ape.international /
AP [edited]


A top bird flu expert on Tuesday predicted that the H5N1 virus will
not reach the United States this year via migratory birds, but warned
it will eventually arrive -- possibly through infected birds smuggled
into the country. Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude
Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, said it has been
historically rare for avian influenza viruses to reach the Americas
from Europe.

He said infected birds being smuggled into the U.S. pose a bigger
threat right now than fears that migratory birds en route to America
might mix with infected birds from Europe or Asia. "While wildlife
people in the United States are watching for the appearance of this
virus, I would suspect that it may not come this year," he told The
Associated Press. "If it doesn't come this year, don't relax, because
it will eventually come," said Webster, who is in Singapore ahead of
a 2-day conference this week that is expected to draw many of the
world's leading scientists on bird flu.

Webster said he's most concerned about the virus becoming established
in the world's wild bird populations. He said most highly pathogenic
avian viruses usually do not last long in nature. They typically
start in wild birds, infect domestic birds and then eventually die out.

"This one has broken the rules and gone back from the domestics into
the wild birds. Is it going to be perpetuated there as a killer?
That's the million dollar question," he said. "Will that virus go to
the breeding grounds in Siberia and Africa and come back again? If it
does, then the chances are eventually it will learn to go human to human."

Webster, who's been researching avian influenza for decades, said the
spread of the virus to Africa is especially worrying because of the
lack of infrastructure, political instability and a health system
already overrun by diseases like HIV/AIDS. With "all of those things
going on in Africa, you could get human-to-human transmission started
and not have the opportunity to do anything about it until it's out
of hand, he said.

[Byline: Margie Mason]

--
ProMED-mail


[It will be interesting to see how well this 'flu virus persists
south of the Sahara, as this virus normally likes cool climes. There
is an interesting discussion in the New York Times

on the problems of using the poultry vaccine in humans in an
emergency. - Mod.MHJ]