Follow the money: how bird flu impacts the economy

Avian flu chops off 3.1% World GDP - World Bank
• Friday, Jul 7, 2006

The World Bank has estimated that a severe avian flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy about 3.1 per cent of world gross domestic product (GDP) which is around $1.25 trillion on a world GDP of $40 trillion.

The revelation came as the avian flu virus, HSNI, has in the last six to nine months, gone global, spreading from East Asia to affect over 40 more countries. The number of human infections and deaths reported to World Health Organisation (WHO), the World Bank disclosed, has accelerated in the past six months.

There were 41 deaths in all of 2005, but 54 is only the first half of 2006, more than twice the pace of last year. The severe case scenario, prepared by the Banks Development Economic Prospect Group (DEPG) was presented by the Bank’s lead economist for East Asia, Mican Brahmbhaff, in a speed to the First International Conference on Avian influenza in Humans at the Institute Pasteur in Paris, France.

Brahmbhatt said that the severe case scenario was based on a one per cent mortality rate or about 70 million people.

He said mortality rates from a pandemic would be much higher in developing countries, with economic losses expected to be twice those of developed countries. Brahmbatt further said that in most countries the impact of avian flu at the macro economic level has been relatively limited, mainly because the poultry sector is a relatively small part of the world economy.

“But on the other hand, the impact on the poultry sector itself has been pretty severe”, he said. Partly, that is happening because birds are dying or they have to be killed off as a means of controlling the disease.

Secondly, what is happening is that in many places, there have been big declines in demand for poultry due to exaggerated public fears of infection. Even though there is no danger of this from properly cooked poultry and that has his farmers in the poultry sector pretty severely”.




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