Back to basics and beginnings again...

The So-Called "Bird Flu": Why is Concern So High?

Seasonal (annual) flu is the flu that comes every year starting in the late fall and ending in the spring. There are a number of subtypes of this influenza virus circulating around the world, which is why the flu vaccines are a bit different each year. Most people have built up some immunity from exposure over the years. Although the seasonal flu is not usually a threat to healthy adults, it still kills some 36,000 Americans every year.

Pandemic flu is a global disease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new flu virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity, and for which there is no vaccine. Pandemic flu spreads easily person-to-person, causes serious illness and death, and can sweep across the country and around the world in very short time.


It is difficult to predict exactly when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be. Wherever and whenever a pandemic starts, everyone around the world is at risk. Unlike SARS, influenza is infectious before symptoms emerge. Consequently, countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop it.

Health professionals are concerned that the continued, rapid spread of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus across eastern Asia and other countries represents a significant threat to human health. The H5N1 virus has raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because:

* It is especially virulent and has caused severe disease in humans who have become infected
* There has already been limited human-to-human transmission in Southeast Asia
* It could evolve to become readily transmissible in humans
* No human H5N1 vaccine is commercially available, despite continual advances in vaccine technology
* Supplies of expensive antiviral medicines are very limited

As journalist Galen McBride summed it up for Pandemic Flu Awareness Week (Oct. 9-15), "A pandemic will occur if the H5N1 avian flu virus, currently circulating in more than 50 countries on three continents, mutates to acquire the ability to transmit efficiently from human to human. Flu viruses mutate millions of times a day and this virus has already achieved limited human-to-human (H2H) transmission as acknowledged by the World Health Organization (WHO)."

Public health experts understand that even a mild pandemic today would kill millions of people worldwide. However, the H5N1 virus is so lethal to humans in its current form that it raises the specter of another 1918 or worse. Scientists theorize that if H5N1 becomes easily transmissible it will also becomes less lethal, but there is no hard evidence to indicate that it will. The 1918 virus killed an estimated 2.5% to 7.4% of the Americans it infected, depending on the city. H5N1 currently kills over 50% of the people infected.

Everybody hopes a severe pandemic will not occur, but to not prepare for a worst case scenario is unconscionable. The U.S. Government and every state have pandemic plans. You can find your state's plan at http://www.pandemicflu.gov

For more information about preparations for communities, businesses, schools and individuals, check out these resources:

U.S. Government Site: http://www.pandemicflu.gov

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Plan for Pandemic Influenza

http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/

Note: Information for this article comes from the following sources:

Caldwell, M. Blake, MD, MPH, "Planning for a Severe Influenza Pandemic: Implications for the Community." Presentation to the Skidaway Community Institute, Oct. 13, 2006

McBride, Galen, "Flu Awareness Week." CulpepperCitizen.com. Oct 4, 2006