Still coming...

Posted on Fri, Oct. 20, 2006

Experts caution: Avian flu pandemic is still possible
BY ASHLEY TUSAN JOYNER
News-Democrat

Avian flu has yet to spread in the United States as it has in other countries, namely Indonesia.

But, to think we're in the clear of a similar outbreak of infectious disease would be a misunderstanding, scientists say.

So far this year, a person dies from the disease roughly every four days, compared with about once every nine days last year, according to a recent report on World Health Organization data. Of the 108 confirmed human cases of avian flu thus far this year, 73 have been fatal -- an increase from the 97 cases and 42 deaths in all of last year.

"The problem is there is absolutely no way to predict the course of avian, or bird, influenza," said Col. Jerry Jaax, an expert on infectious disease, who spoke at Southwestern Illinois College on Thursday. "This particular strain of flu, which mutates exceptionally easily -- almost constantly -- possesses two of the three general characteristics that we would be concerned about bringing about a pandemic flu."

One: It has been able cause disease in humans. Two: It has been able to travel from birds to humans. And, there are even isolated incidents of human-to-human transmission, the third major trait of a seemingly pandemic-bound disease.

The last major flu pandemic was is 1918, when up to 150 million people worldwide died from illness.

Thursday night, students and faculty welcomed Jaax and his wife, Col. Nancy Jaax, as part of a semester-long speaker series in the science and math division at SWIC.

The couple, both retired Army veterinarians and current academics at Kansas State University, are acknowledged experts in the medical defense against chemical and biological agents.

They are best known for their successful containment of an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus among an ape colony in Reston, Va., in 1989. The case became the basis of national bestseller "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston, and was later adapted for film in "Outbreak."

Today, numerous other infectious diseases including Lyme Disease, the Nipah virus in Southeast Asia and an antibiotic-resistent strain of tuberculosis, though adolescent in age, present serious threats for the future of disease containment, and are demanding scientific attention, accordingly.

"The government has identified 50 or 60 or more organisms that could be used as bioterrorism agents, and I think surveillance is the key to both things," Jaax said. "Dollars spent on countering bioterrorism can serve a dual purpose in the less politically-charged area of emerging diseases."

Contact reporter Ashley Tusan Joyner at ajoyner@bnd.com or 239-2562.
Click here to find out more!