Saturday, December 16, 2006

Hear from pandemic survivors

Survivors Recall Horror of Flu Pandemic
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Dec 16, 12:33 PM (ET)

By BRETT ZONGKER

(AP)
CHEVY CHASE, Md. (AP) - At the height of the flu pandemic in 1918, William H. Sardo Jr. remembers the pine caskets stacked in the living room of his family's house, a funeral home in Washington, D.C.

The city had slowed to a near halt. Schools were closed. Church services were banned. The federal government limited its hours of operation. People were dying - some who took ill in the morning were dead by night.

"That's how quickly it happened," said Sardo, 94, who lives in an assisted living facility just outside the nation's capital. "They disappeared from the face of the earth."

Sardo is among the last survivors of the 1918 flu pandemic. Their stories offer a glimpse at the forgotten history of one of the world's worst plagues, when the virus killed at least 50 million people and perhaps as many as 100 million.


More than 600,000 people in the United States died of what was then called "Spanish Influenza." The flu seemed to be particularly lethal for otherwise healthy young adults, many of whom suffocated from the buildup of liquids in their lungs.

In the United States, the first reported cases surfaced at an Army camp in Kansas as World War I began winding down. The virus quickly spread among soldiers at U.S. camps and in the trenches of Europe. It paralyzed many communities as it circled the world.

In the District of Columbia, the first recorded influenza death came on Sept. 21, 1918. The victim, a 24-year-old railroad worker, had been exposed in New York four days earlier. The flu swept through the nation's capital, which had attracted thousands of soldiers and war workers. By the time the pandemic had subsided, at least 30,000 people had become ill and 3,000 had died in the city.

Among the infected was Sardo, who was 6 years old at the time.

He remembers little of his illness but recalls that his mother was terrified.


"They kept me well separated from everybody," said Sardo, who lived with his parents, two brothers and three other family members. His family quarantined him in the bedroom he had shared with his brother. Everyone in the family wore masks.

The city began shutting down. The federal government staggered its hours to limit crowding on the streets and on streetcars. Commissioners overseeing the district closed schools in early October, along with playgrounds, theaters, vaudeville houses and "all places of amusement." Dances and other social gatherings were banned.

The commissioners asked clergy to cancel church services because the pandemic was threatening the "machinery of the federal government," The Washington Star newspaper reported at the time. Pastors protested.

"There was a feeling that they couldn't turn to God, other than in prayer," Sardo said. "They liked the feeling of going to church, and they were forbidden."

The flu's spread and the ensuing restrictions "made everybody afraid to go see anybody," he said.

"It changed a lot of society," Sardo said. "We became more individualistic."

In a list of 12 rules to prevent the disease's spread, the Army's surgeon general wrote that people should "avoid needless crowding," open windows and "breathe deeply" when the air is "pure" and "wash your hands before eating."

One slogan was, "Cover up each cough and sneeze. If you don't, you'll spread the disease."

Those who were healthy wore masks when venturing outside. People who were known to be infected were threatened with a $50 fine if they were seen in public. Sardo remembers people throwing buckets of water with disinfectant on their sidewalks to wash away germs from people spitting on the street.

At the time, rumors swirled that the Germans had spread the disease - which Sardo did not believe.

A second flu survivor, 99-year-old Ruth Marshall, says she, her two sisters and a brother came down with what they thought was a cold. Then the fever struck and the illness became severe, she said.

Marshall, who lived just steps from the Capitol at the time, said the influenza deaths reported in the newspapers came as a surprise.

"We never thought we were going to die. We did pretty good - a lot of prayers," she said.

Others were not so fortunate. As the death toll started to mount, there was a shortage of coffins. Funeral homes could not keep up. Sardo's father, who owned William H. Sardo & Co., and other funeral-home directors turned to soldiers for help embalming and digging thousands of graves.

Talk of the threat of another pandemic brings back memories for Sardo, who says he has gotten a flu shot every year they are available.

"It scares the hell out of me. It does," Sardo said.

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Pandemic preparedness by US Congress


Congress passes public health preparedness bill

Lisa Schnirring and Robert Roos * Staff Writers

Dec 15, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – Just before adjourning on Dec 9, the US Congress passed a bill to establish a new biodefense research and development agency and tune up the nation's public health emergency preparedness programs in a number of other ways.

The legislation sets up an agency called the Biodefense Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The agency represents an attempt to revive the languishing Project BioShield, established in 2004 to develop countermeasures against biological weapons and other threats.

The legislation, called the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (S 3678), was passed by the Senate Dec 5 and cleared the House in the early morning hours of Dec 9. It now awaits President George W. Bush's signature.

"We're anticipating that he will sign it," Marc Wolfson, a spokesman for the HHS Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness, told CIDRAP News today.

"I think people were surprised it made it through in the last hours there," Wolfson said. "There was a lot of negotiation that went into seeing it happen."

The final version combines a wide-ranging bill introduced in the Senate in July with a House measure calling for the BARDA. The House unanimously passed the BARDA bill, offered by Reps Anna G. Eshoo, D-Calif., and Mike Rogers, R-Mich., in September. The Senate added the house measure to its bill (S 3678) before passing it Dec 5; the House passed the combined bill just before adjournment.

Sen. Richard Burr, R-S.C., author of the original Senate bill, praised his colleagues of both political parties who worked for 2 years on the legislation. "This bill will help improve our preparedness and response to emergencies and disasters be they a terrorist attack or caused by Mother Nature," Burr said in a Dec 9 press release. "It will also help improve our ability to create new drugs and vaccines to fight against emergencies like a flu pandemic."

The bill reauthorizes the Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002, passed after the terrorist attacks of 2001. Besides setting up the BARDA, the legislation does the following, among other things:

* Clarifies that HHS, not the Department of Homeland Security, is the lead federal agency for health and medical response to public health emergencies
* Requires HHS to set general preparedness standards and pandemic influenza preparedness standards for states and to penalize states financially for failure to meet them
* Requires states to match federal preparedness grants at the 5% level initially and at 10% in later years
* Calls for establishing within 2 years a nationwide electronic information-sharing system to enhance detection of and response to disease outbreaks and other public health emergencies
* Requires HHS to study the possibility of providing local communities with additional medical surge capacity in an emergency
* Makes political subdivisions of states and groups of states eligible for federal assistance for public health preparedness
* Codifies and expands the Medical Reserve Corps, a community-based network of volunteers who provide assistance in public health emergencies

The BARDA aims to boost Project BioShield, which was set up to nurture the development of vaccines and other medical countermeasures against biological, chemical, radiological, and nuclear agents. Major pharmaceutical companies have shown little interest in pursuing BioShield projects.

An online report this week by Government Executive magazine said past efforts to create a BARDA were hamstrung by controversies about whether it would be subject to the Freedom of Information Act and other disclosure laws. Most provisions to circumvent those laws were stripped from the bill, except for one that allows HHS to withhold information that might expose public health weaknesses, the report said.

Eshoo, coauthor of the House version of the BARDA bill, said in a Dec 9 statement that the lack of commercial demand for drugs to counter bioterrorism-related diseases creates a funding gap known as the "valley of death." She said the BARDA will bridge the gap by making interim payments at key development milestones, which will give companies incentives to pursue products that show promise in early research.

HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt, in a Dec 5 statement after the Senate approved S 3678, said the legislation complements work that is already being done to improve the BioShield program. He said HHS is taking steps to streamline countermeasure development by making the process more transparent and predictable. The new legislation will allow HHS to make milestone-based advance payments to companies, rather than withholding payment until the product is delivered, Leavitt said.

The text of the bill says that the HHS secretary can pay up to 10% of a contract amount in advance if it appears necessary to ensure the project's success. Also, a contract can provide for additional advance payments of up to 5% each for meeting milestones specified in the contract, up to a total of 50%.

Lance Ignon, vice president of corporate affairs at VaxGen Inc., a Brisbane, Calif., company that has been struggling to fulfill an $877.5 million government contract to supply anthrax vaccine, told CIDRAP News that the legislation is a step in the right direction. "But what's needed is a fundamental cultural shift to a more open and transparent dialogue between government and industry," he said. "Unless that happens, this won't succeed."

VaxGen's anthrax vaccine has been delayed because of potency problems, and in May, the Government Accountability Office said the government's contract with VaxGen was too rigid and might discourage other biotechnology companies from pursuing Project BioShield contracts. Developing new vaccines is expensive, difficult, and often hampered by testing and production delays.

"Getting across the valley of death is not necessarily about money, but involves a true partnership between government and industry," Ignon said.

The new legislation authorizes spending of $1.07 billion for BARDA for fiscal years 2006 through 2008.

In an August report, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the original Senate bill—which did not include the BARDA provision—would cost $297 million in fiscal year 2007 and about $6 billion for the period 2007 through 2011.

Individuals need to plan: states can only do so much.


Planning for flu pandemic involves even Meals on Wheels

By Anne Saunders, Associated Press Writer | December 14, 2006

CONCORD, N.H. --Meals on Wheels delivers 850 meals a day in Rockingham County, relying on 35-40 drivers and hundreds of volunteers who package the food for delivery.

What happens if these folks get sick in a flu pandemic? Will elders go hungry?

The New Horizons shelter for men and Angie's Shelter for women in Manchester typically serve 95-120 people a night with a staff of 17, three of whom work overnight. If their staff is ill, where will the homeless go?

This is when statewide avian flu planning gets down to the nuts and bolts.

Like all states, New Hampshire has been involved in making plans should a new flu strain or other contagious disease strike large numbers of people.

The state's efforts led to a 99-page document on pandemic preparedness that talks about how state health officials, hospitals and the state Emergency Operations Center will work together.

Another fat document looks at the numbers of hospital beds and how to provide extra beds in an emergency. That report found the state has room to accommodate 2,149 patients in regular beds and 374 in intensive care units. The goal is to find room for up to 30 percent more.

"I believe strongly that New Hampshire is leading the way on pandemic planning. I'm not going to say that I'm satisfied with our efforts. We do have gaps that we need to fill," said Health Commissioner John Stephen.

The state already has tested its ability to deliver flu vaccine to large numbers of people when it ran a large-scale drill in three parts of the state last November. And a drill this fall used 50 volunteers at the field house at Dartmouth College to test the Hanover community's ability to turn that space into a makeshift hospital.

A strike force of medical providers from all over the state came together for the event and two new software systems were tested, including a new Internet-based program creating an electronic medical record for patients who might be forced to move around in a disaster.

"You can only plan so much on paper," said Dr. Robert Gougelet, who directs the Northern New England Metropolitan Medical Response System, a bioterrorism and pandemic planning agency involving Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.

New Hampshire has divided the task of pandemic planning into 19 regions, each with at least one hospital. Hospital officials, public health leaders, social service providers, emergency medical providers, law enforcement and homeland security representatives are meeting regularly to talk about the specific needs of their communities.

They're identifying the buildings that could take patients if the hospitals run out of room and arranging ways to get additional beds, supplies and staff. They're looking at sites to securely store vaccines and ways to ensure everyone involved can communicate. They're identifying people like the homebound and homeless in their communities who may need special attention in a disaster.

Gougelet said the regions all are at different points in the process but after studying what went wrong following Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast, he's convinced that localizing the planning will be key to a successful response in New Hampshire whatever the threat.

"You're not waiting for the state. You're not waiting for the feds. They can still go into action without anyone's permission," he said.

Several steps remain in the pandemic planning, including getting the state Legislature to appropriate $6 million for special vaccines being made available by the federal government, getting each region to complete and run a drill on its plan and making sure officials have the legal authority to ration medicine, commandeer buildings or take other steps that may be necessary in a health emergency. Gougelet said it's also unclear whether existing plans make adequate provisions for an extended emergency.

And what will Meals on Wheels do if its volunteers are laid low by the flu? The agency keeps a supply of frozen meals to deliver extras if bad weather or a shortage of delivery people makes daily delivery impossible. It also has a collection of meals that don't require refrigeration in case of a prolonged power outage.

"We see ourselves as having to keep going no matter what. So many people depend on us," said Executive Director Debra Perou-Hermans.

And at Angie's Shelter and New Horizons, officials said shelters have a broad base of volunteers to provide extra hands in an emergency, especially since New Horizons also houses the local health clinic.

"A lot of what is done is done by volunteers," said Tim Soucy who's vice president of the board and a Manchester public health administrator.

"It could be the saving grace. I'm sure people would still say: what needs to be done? I think we're very fortunate," he said.
© Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Friday, December 15, 2006

The states all have plans: but just how effective are they?


States' flu plans vary widely

By Lauran Neergaard
Associated Press

Trailers packed with cots and medical supplies are parked in secret locations around Colorado, ready for doctors to open makeshift hospitals in school gyms if a flu pandemic strikes.

Parts of southeastern Washington are considering drive-through flu shots during a pandemic -- although a practice run this fall showed they'd better hire traffic cops. If Alabama closes schools amid a super-flu, students may take classes via public television. In Dallas, city librarians may replace sick 911 operators.

States and communities are getting creative as they struggle to answer the Bush administration's call to prepare for the next influenza pandemic, whether the culprit is the much-feared Asian bird flu or some other super-strain.

The Associated Press took a closer look at those preparations and found wide differences in how far along states are -- and little consensus on the best policies, even among neighboring states, on such basic issues as who decides whether to close schools.

Almost half the states haven't spent any of their own money yet to gird against a super-flu, relying instead on grants from the federal government.

Ethical queries abound about how to ration scarce drugs and vaccine. As Oklahoma epidemiologist Dr. Brett Cauthen puts it, that's "the toughest question out there." Some states are debating whether to purchase the recommended anti-flu medications to store for their citizens, or to gamble that they'll receive enough from a federal stockpile.

And while some states proudly list other pandemic supplies they've stockpiled in guarded warehouses -- 4.5 million protective face masks, touts New York -- others, like West Virginia, still are putting final drafts of their plans to paper.

"How are states doing, and how do we know how states are doing?" asked Dr. Pascale Wortley of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "There's a lot of important things that are very hard to measure. It's a real challenge."

Indeed, when the government's first official assessment of state readiness begins in a few weeks, officials expect few states will have tackled some of the toughest issues: How will you keep grocery stores stocked? Will you reserve enough anti-flu drugs for utility workers so the water and electricity stay on? If you close schools, will local businesses let parents stay home with their children, or fire them?

When the feds fly in your state's share of vaccine and medicine, can you store it properly and get it to patients without being mobbed?

"Nothing, we think, is better than having 5,000 communities right now wrestle with this," said Dr. William Raub, emergency planning chief at the Department of Health and Human Services. "What will seem to work happily in one community is probably not going to work in some others."

Super-strains of the easy-to-mutate influenza virus cause worldwide outbreaks every few decades or so, three in the last century. Worst was the 1918 pandemic that killed about 50 million people worldwide, 500,000 in the U.S. alone. If a 1918-style pandemic struck today, up to a third of the population could fall ill and 1.9 million Americans could die.

With another pandemic overdue, the CDC began telling states to prepare years ago, plans that have taken on greater urgency with the simmering H5N1 bird flu. In 2004, just 29 states had pandemic plans of some sort. Today, all have at least a draft on paper.

Next spring, federal health officials will have their first report card on the quality of those preparations, based on a questionnaire that Raub hopes to ship to the states by month's end -- questions that will go beyond health care to ask how communities would keep the economy and society in general running.

Raub said he's not playing "gotcha," but that the responses are key to helping less prepared states catch up, and identifying best practices that neighbors can copy.

"I feel pretty confident we will have covered far and away all the important things," he said.

It's an assessment that public health advocates, worried at varying state investments, call long due.

"Where you live shouldn't determine your level of preparedness," said Jeff Levi, executive director of the Trust for America's Health. "This is not a question of letting 51 flowers bloom. The federal government, as the primary payer and the entity that can see the biggest picture, needs to define a minimum standard of protection that every American can expect."

For now, hospital overflow, purchases of the anti-flu drug Tamiflu, plans for school closures, and how states are practicing for an outbreak are emerging as initial indicators of readiness.

A new study by Levi's group suggests half the states would run out of hospital beds within two weeks of a moderately severe pandemic outbreak, not even as bad as a 1918 outbreak.

In interviews conducted by the AP in every state, health chiefs repeatedly said they know their hospitals will be overrun -- but that having enough beds isn't the most critical issue.

"We don't have the health care workers to take care of all the patients," explained Alabama State Health Officer Don Williamson.

Indeed, nursing shortages and other issues mean that today, hospitals around the country may have staff available for just 60 percent or so of their beds. In a pandemic, some of those workers are going to be sick or caring for ill relatives, not at work.

That's where some states are getting creative.

Those trailers parked in strategic spots around Colorado hold a total of 6,500 beds that could be set up in school gyms or event halls, anywhere with power, water and bathrooms.

"Where we're best prepared is a place to put people," said Dr. Ned Calonge, chief medical officer of the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

Now, the state is recruiting volunteers to take care of the people who will lie in those beds, creating a master list of health workers not usually involved in flu care, from pharmacists to physical therapists, who could be credentialed now and put on standby.

El Paso County, in addition, wants to set up a phone bank of retired doctors to advise people on when to go to crowded doctors' offices and when to just sneeze at home.

Louisiana has discussed expanding visiting hours so relatives can help with some patient care, or even giving recovering patients some light duty.

"There's no easy answer. You have to be thinking creatively with what you have, rather than thinking you'll be able to find accessory staff," said Dr. Frank Welch, the state's immunization director.

California budgeted $18 million this year to buy three 200-bed mobile hospitals, and $78 million more to buy equipment -- including 20,000 beds -- for what officials call "alternate care sites."

The idea: The very sickest get hospitalized; the moderately ill stay home; those in between get care on cots at schools or fairgrounds.

Adds Dr. Bob England, health director for Maricopa County, Ariz., "We have to set up some kind of system for checking on folks (at home) and weeding out the people who really need to come in."

Inside hospitals, shortfalls will go beyond beds. For example, Georgia predicts 20,000 of its citizens would need ventilators over the months of a severe pandemic. In the entire state, there are 1,500. Officials just bought 2,000 portable versions to truck to different hospitals as needed, but worry they won't be durable enough.

Because it will take months to custom-brew a vaccine once a pandemic begins, flu-treating medicines, mostly Tamiflu, form the backbone of the nation's preparations. World flu authorities recommend stockpiling enough for a quarter of the population, or 75 million Americans.

The Bush administration is in the process of buying enough to treat 44 million people, and will hold each state's share in a national stockpile.

States are supposed to buy enough to treat the remaining 31 million people, doses they would store. The federal government negotiated a cheap price and offered to chip in 25 percent of the cost, but told states "we need you to come the rest of the way," Raub said.

Most states say they do plan to buy at least some of those outstanding doses, although at least nine still are awaiting money for the purchases from their state legislatures.

And at least four states don't know if they'll spend their own scarce dollars for the extra purchases, saying the drugs might not work against a super-flu -- or expire before they're needed.

"There's a chance that it might be useful, but there's also a chance that it might not be useful at all," frets Arizona assist health director Will Humble. The state used a $1 million federal grant to purchase enough medicine for 66,000 people; he isn't sure if it will buy more.

Nevada spent a $2 million federal grant on anti-flu drugs, but none of its health districts was interested in buying more.

"There are always competing uses for the money," said state health officer Dr. Bradford Lee. "We're trying to balance what may be needed for a disease that doesn't exist with needs that are immediate."

Whether they buy their own stocks or not, many states don't yet know how they'll successfully dispense their share of the nationally stockpiled Tamiflu and other supplies once federal workers deliver it. A new requirement heading for the states: Figure out exactly how they'll handle the supplies so they get to doctors or pharmacies for proper dispersal.

"Some of these pallets weigh more than 350 pounds," noted Raub. "We think it (the plan) ought to be something more than 'Stick it in the back of the state police car and drive it somewhere.'"

The way to know if all these preparations have a shot at working is to practice them, Raub said -- and there have been few statewide drills yet. But some communities are trying innovative dry runs.

In Hawaii, volunteers pretended to be sick during a mock drive-thru clinic on the island of Maui, letting health workers practice how fast they could decide who to pull out their cars and hospitalize -- and who to send back home.

In Minnesota and Idaho, health workers handed out M&Ms to rehearse how they'd dispense anti-flu drugs.

Communities in at least 15 states have practiced mass vaccination, most by testing how fast they could give people the regular winter flu shot. Billings, Mont., vaccinated more than 6,300 people in a day.

In Washington, Benton and Franklin counties held drive-thru flu shots. They underestimated the demand, and the traffic.

Here's the rub: CDC's Wortley doesn't think super-fast vaccination is the best to practice. The first scarce doses of vaccine to arrive in each state will be reserved for high-risk groups, such as health care workers and those most at risk of death. The federal government currently is debating if other people needed to keep key industries going, such as grocery truck drivers and power-company workers, should be added to that list. But it won't be first-come, first-served.

"You're potentially talking about a vaccination campaign that draws out over more than a year," Wortley warned. "Really the issue isn't how many people can you vaccinate in a day. The issue is how do you pull off this type of campaign where people are going to be wanting vaccine and there's not enough?"

As for drive-thru flu shots, she jokes that it's "the American way," but doubts it will work because of traffic jams.

With scarce vaccine and still unclear drug stocks, strategies to slow the next pandemic "will be primarily classical public health measures that go back to the Victorian era or before," Raub warns -- such measures as staying home when sick and avoiding crowded places.

That's where school closings come in. Children are prime spreaders of the flu, but it's unclear whether closing schools will really help -- and if so, when they should shut. Still, most states told the AP they'd probably leave that decision to local school officials.

"If we just close the schools and everyone goes to the mall, we haven't gained anything," pointed out Jay Butler, Alaska's deputy health director.

Wyoming hopes schools can stay open, so parents don't have to leave their jobs to care for young children.

"Think how that will impact all the doctor's offices, hospitals, grocery stores," said state epidemiologist Tracy Douglas Murphy.

What if states do all this planning and the next pandemic never arrives? Much of the work is applicable to other disasters, too, from earthquakes to bioterrorism.

"People forget that you're supposed to be doing all-hazards preparedness," said Washington Secretary of Health Mary C. Selecky.

"We're trying to be prepared for a range of events," agreed Alabama emergency planner Kent Speigner, his voice echoing in a cavernous warehouse where the state stores flu supplies right next to smallpox supplies. "We really don't know what's coming next."

Grassroots efforts needed to prevent bird flu pandemic


Funmi Peter-Omale
Abuja

The United States government yesterday warned that the avian flu, popularly known as the bird flu, may mutate into a deadly pandemic worldwide and could end up claiming millions of lives globally, especially in developing countries.

The US leader of Delegation on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, Ambassador John Lange, stated this at a press briefing at the US Embassy, Abuja, yesterday.

Lange stated that the avian flu requires constant surveillance, which the US is trying to establish through broad-based cooperation to prevent an outbreak of the pandemic in case the avian virus mutates.

According to him, there is need for cooperative action to be taken down to the grassroots where many rural dwellers are exposed to the virus without knowledge of its deadly impact when they come in contact with chickens.

The ambassador, who has just attended an international avian influenza conference in Bamako, Mali, said concerns were raised on key countries in the world, which include Nigeria, Indonesia and Egypt.

He stated that the US government was working closely with the Nigerian government to develop a strategy, just as he commended Nigeria on the level of bio-security measures set up by a farm he visited in Kaduna State.

He said the avian flu was a blessing in disguise because it made people realise the importance of improving bio-security measures on farms. He therefore urged more global action against the influenza.

The six-man US team is in Nigeria to identify opportunities and constraints in combating the spread of bird flu in the country and appropriate strategies to support it to contain the disease.

He said further that his team had met with the Minister of Agriculture, Alhaji Adamu Bello, and stakeholders from the Poultry Farmers' Associations and other international development partners in furtherance of the goal.

The US government last month announced the donation of $1m to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) office in Nigeria to help eradicate the disease.

The new grant complements previous support to Nigeria of more than $2m since the first reports of the presence of the disease in poultry farms in February.

Copyright © 2006 This Day. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global

Model for containment of pandemic



IOM says community measures may help in a pandemic

Robert Roos * News Editor

Dec 14, 2006 (CIDRAP New) – The Institute of Medicine (IOM) weighed in with a clear "maybe" this week on whether community interventions such as school closures, quarantine, and respiratory etiquette could help blunt the impact of an influenza pandemic.

After looking at mathematical models and historical evidence, an IOM committee said that a wide range of community interventions may be helpful, but there is no conclusive evidence for their effectiveness.

"It is almost impossible to say that any of the community interventions have been proven ineffective," says the committee's report. "However, it is also almost impossible to say that the interventions, either individually or in combination, will be effective in mitigating an influenza pandemic."

"There is simply a dearth of strong evidence concerning the efficacy of community containment strategies, which is particularly troublesome given the fact that many of the interventions will carry significant economic, social, ethical, and logistical consequences," adds the report, titled "Modeling Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza: A Letter Report."

Containment measures endorsed by the panel include home isolation of patients plus social support, voluntary sheltering at home, quarantine, hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, preventive antiviral treatment, and community restrictions such as school closures. The group also supported standard public health measures such as disease surveillance and contact tracing.

But the panel warned that public health officials, in recommending such steps, should take care not to overstate the evidence for their effectiveness. The group also said that any plans to use such measures should be linked with plans for mitigating their side effects.

The report, released Dec 12, was prepared by a 13-member committee chaired by Adel A.F. Mahmoud, MD, PhD, former president of Merck Vaccines. It is based on a workshop held Oct 25 in Washington, DC.

The committee reviewed 6 mathematical simulations of community containment strategies and found none of them entirely convincing. Many key assumptions used in the models, such as those regarding virus transmissibility and compliance with interventions, were based on little evidence, the report says. Accordingly, the panel calls for prospective epidemiologic studies of seasonal flu to bolster the assumptions used in the models.

The report also critiques existing models for focusing too narrowly on flu-related outcome measures and ignoring other effects of interventions. For example, extended school closings could expose children to increased violence or result in malnutrition by depriving children of free or subsidized school lunches.

The committee also reviewed several analyses of data from the 1918 flu pandemic. These included preliminary results from Dr. Howard Markel of a study of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in 45 US cities. He concluded that NPIs may have lowered peak death rates and flattened the epidemic curves in those cities, though some cities had severe epidemics despite using NPIs.

Similarly, Dr. Marc Lipsitch found in a study of 17 cities that early interventions were significantly associated with lower peak death rates and that early school closures were most closely linked with lower peaks. Further, an analysis presented by Dr. Neil Ferguson, combining 1918 data with mathematical modeling, suggested that community interventions could significantly reduce overall illness rates if they were imposed for the full duration of the pandemic.

Summarizing the lessons of the simulation models and historical analyses, the report says, "The models generally suggest that a combination of targeted antivirals and NPIs can delay and flatten the epidemic peak, but the evidence is less convincing that they can reduce the overall size of the epidemic. Delay of the epidemic peak is critically important because it allows additional time for vaccine development and antiviral production. Lowering the peak of the epidemic is crucial also because it can reduce the burden on healthcare infrastructure by avoiding an extremely large influx of patients."

Participants in the workshop said differences between the world of 1918 and today may limit the usefulness of historical data, the report notes. For two examples, population density is different today, and antibiotics now available to treat secondary infections could increase survival.

The committee's conclusion on the key question of community restrictions, such as closing schools and limiting public gatherings, is that they have a role, but the evidence does not permit any predictions about the effects of specific types of restrictions or the comparative effects of voluntary versus mandatory restrictions.

As with any infectious disease, the evidence indicates that early restrictions are better than later ones," the report says. "The main effect might be to slow the time to peak of the outbreak in a community, which could be important for hospital-based management of ill patients and to allow for delivery of vaccine if available."

In other conclusions, the report says there is probably a role for isolating sick people at home while providing social support for them, though this is based mainly on common sense and evidence from other illnesses.

Other measures the committee affirmed as potentially beneficial, based on varying kinds of evidence, include:

* Surveillance and case reporting, rapid diagnosis, hand hygiene, and respiratory etiquette
* Antiviral prophylaxis and treatment in households and healthcare settings
* Contact tracing to allow contacts to take actions such as voluntary sheltering and quarantine
* Risk communication, meaning the identification of "key and trusted spokespersons" to promote public acceptance of community containment measures

The committee offers 11 recommendations for improving the understanding and use of community interventions. One calls for the development of "decision-aid models that can be readily linked to surveillance data to provide real-time feedback during a pandemic."

The IOM report's release came a day after health officials meeting in Atlanta heard about Markel's research suggesting that cities which had implemented early "social distancing" measures in the pandemic of 1918 had lower death rates than other cities.

According to an Associated Press (AP) report on the meeting, researchers found that cities such as St. Louis, which instituted social distancing at least 2 weeks before the peak of the local epidemic, had flu-related death rates less than half that of Philadelphia, which was slower to act.

Markel, of the University of Michigan, is conducting the research with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the AP reported. Markel called the effort "a Manhattan project of history."

So far, evidence shows that the more restrictions were used and the longer they were in place, the milder the pandemic, the story said. Wearing masks in public, restricting door-to-door sales, canceling church, and quarantining sick people were among the measures that seemed helpful. But the researchers said they hadn't determined which measures were most effective, and they couldn't prove those steps were the reason some cities did better than others.

One factor that may confuse the interpretation of the 1918 data on community interventions is that the two waves of the pandemic that year might have affected cities differently, according to Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of the CIDRAP Web site.

The pandemic began with a relatively mild wave in the spring of 1918, and was followed by a second, much more severe and widespread wave in the fall. Osterholm told CIDRAP News there is strong evidence that military camps that were hard hit in the spring had lower illness and death rates in the fall wave, presumbably because many people developed immunity. He suggested that the same might have been true of cities.

"All of us really want to demonstrate protection from these interventions—it's our greatest hope for a future pandemic—but we also want to be certain that the information we give people is based on science and not wishful thinking," Osterholm commented.

IOM. Modeling community containment for pandemic influenza: a letter report. Released Dec 11, 2006 [Full text]

China talks the talk


Chinese vice premier urges to strengthen bird flu prevention

Chinese Vice Premier Hui Liangyu has urged concerned departments to strengthen bird flu prevention in face of new cases reported in other countries.

China has made some achievements in fighting against the epidemic in the autumn and winter seasons, said Hui.

The Ministry of Health spokesman said last week that China has not seen any new cases of animal or human bird flu infections since the onset of winter.

However, the vice premier warned of possible outbreaks as new cases have been reported recently in other countries and the peak season for poultry trade will come with the arrival of the New Year and the Spring Festival.

The Ministry of Agriculture has asked local veterinarian departments to strengthen vaccination of poultry and conduct stricter monitoring.

It will launch a nationwide inspection over animal-related products in later December to ensure that they are free of bird flu virus.

About 47,000 poultry birds died in 10 outbreaks of bird flu in seven provinces on the Chinese mainland this year, with another 2.94 million fowls culled, said the ministry in November.

The cases of human infection with bird flu numbered 13 this year, six more than last year, according to the Ministry of Health.

Source: Xinhua

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Pandemic: Is it time to get scared?




By Dr. Craig van Roekens

For the Times Herald-Record
December 13, 2006

The media transmits the latest fear, outbreak and disaster instantaneously. Avian flu pandemic is on the way!

With so many things to worry about from killer bees to flesh-eating bacteria, not to mention death and taxes and the kids' education, do you really need to worry about one more problem?

Apparently, much of the government, as well as the health-care and emergency preparedness community, feels you do.

In fact, just as we get ready for another winter flu season, emergency drills involving pandemics and respiratory illnesses are taking place statewide using federal funding and coordinating multiple agencies, hospitals and counties.

So, just a refresher.

Pandemic is Greek for worldwide outbreak. Influenza is just one of many viruses affecting humans. There are two basic strains of influenza, A and B, with many different serotypes.

Every year, the virus changes somewhat and is either stronger or weaker. Every year, vaccine makers attempt to devise a vaccine that will be effective based on predictions of serotype mutations.

Unlike polonium 210 or anthrax, influenza is contagious. It is spread human to human via airborne transmission of inhaled droplets as well as by hand-to-hand contact. Influenza is typically even more contagious than TB or smallpox.

The concern about the highly lethal H5N1 avian flu strain identified in eastern Asia is that the human reservoir does not have any significant immunity to this virus and we have no clearly proven effective anti-virals.

So far, human-to-human transmission of this avian strain appears quite limited. Even so, whether it is this or another novel strain of influenza or even another virus, it is likely there will be another pandemic.

In 1918, flu pandemic was responsible for perhaps 50 million worldwide fatalities, with almost 1 million U.S. deaths, including at least 12,000 in New York.

More recent pandemics were not nearly as devastating. The 1957 pandemic caused 70,000 U.S. deaths, the 1968 pandemic 34,000.

As a U.S. citizen with access to the best acute health-care in the world, you may feel safe. But computer simulations as well as tabletop drills suggest otherwise. In the event of a pandemic, orderly mass vaccinations, antiviral distribution, work stoppages, quarantine or shelter-in-place will be challenging at best.

Complacency is not likely to confer survival advantages. So please read on and consider taking these minimal steps:

s Wash your hands. Often. Your mother was right.

s Eat your chicken soup, eat your vegetables and fruits, get some exercise, get some sleep, and be happy. Your grandmother was right.

s Please cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze, please wear a hat, and please stay home if you're sick. Your teacher was right.

s Get your flu shot (barring contraindications), maintain your own emergency plan with food, medicines, communications, meeting places, medical and critical information, and try to stay rationally informed. The government and health community are right.

Emergency physicians and nurses, first responders, hospitals, health departments, local, regional and state officials are all preparing, but nothing will be effective without your help.

Have a healthy, happy, safe holiday season, and please wash your hands.

On the Web

For more information about flu pandemic preparedness, go to:

www.pandemicflu.gov

www.cdc.org

www.health.state.ny.us


Dr. Craig van Roekens is emergency physician director of Vassar Brothers Medical Center in Poughkeepsie and is an active leader in local, regional and state emergency preparedness issues. He, his wife and their triplets want you to be prepared.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Duck die off in Idaho prompts questions


By Laura Zuckerman

SALMON, Idaho (Reuters) - Officials scrambled on Wednesday to determine what has caused the deaths of thousands of mallard ducks in south-central Idaho near the Utah border.

Although wildlife experts are downplaying any links to bird flu, they have sent samples to government labs to test for the deadly H5N1 flu strain, among other pathogens.

Officials with the federal Bureau of Homeland Security have been also called in to help with the probe.

"We think the possibility of avian flu is very remote but we're not ruling anything out at this point in time," said Dave Parish, regional supervisor for the Idaho Department of Fish and Game. "We want to make sure all the bases are covered."

Wildlife officials are calling the massive die-off alarming, with the number of dead mallards rising from 1,000 on Tuesday to more than 2,000 by Wednesday afternoon. "We've never seen anything like this -- ever," Parrish said.

A hunter alerted state conservation officials after finding a handful of dead ducks along a creek near Burley, about 150 miles southeast of Boise, on Friday.

By Wednesday, dead and dying birds clogged sections of the stream and littered its banks. Officials have posted signs warning hunters and others not to touch or eat the birds until a cause of death has been identified.

Preliminary findings by state veterinarians suggest the mallards succumbed to a bacterial infection, officials said. They said it was unclear why a similar outbreak had never before occurred in Idaho.

SIMILAR EVENT IN IOWA LAST YEAR

On Wednesday, officials outfitted with protective gear were gathering hundreds of mallard carcasses. Wildlife managers said the birds will be incinerated.

The only mallard die-off roughly equivalent in recent years happened in Waterloo, Iowa in 2005, when 500 ducks died from a fungus they contracted by eating moldy grain, according to a report by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wildlife Health Center.

The center's Kathryn Converse, a wildlife disease specialist, said early clues suggest the outbreak in Idaho is not linked to insecticides applied to surrounding croplands because it is not affecting other bird species or predators feeding on the dead ducks.

Mallards are the most common duck species in the United States, with populations nationwide. Most mallards that winter in Idaho originate from Alberta, Canada, with a smaller percentage from the Northwest Territories, said Tom Keegan, regional wildlife manager with Idaho Fish and Game.

Although the magnitude and the pace of the die-off is unusual, officials said, migratory birds and other wild animals are more likely to get sick when large numbers congregate in small areas.

That can happen to mallards in the winter, when many of the waterways they depend upon are frozen.

Compounding the seasonal phenomenon is the ever-shrinking habitat available to wildlife because of sprawling development and expanding farm operations.

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

Decreasing viral load in H5N1 may lead to good outcomes


Expert says late antiviral treatment may still help H5N1 patients

Robert Roos * News Editor* Cidrap

Dec 12, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – A virologist who has treated H5N1 avian influenza patients in Vietnam said the antiviral drug oseltamivir may help avian flu patients even when started later than 2 days after illness onset—generally considered too late, according to a Reuters report today.

The standard advice about oseltamivir for treatment of seasonal flu is that it can shorten the illness if it is started within 2 days after the first symptoms. But Menno de Jong of the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City said the drug seemed to help four of his patients even though it was started later.

De Jong said the assumption that oseltamivir works only if started within 48 hours may be true only for human flu viruses. He said the H5N1 virus is known to continue replicating in humans on the seventh or eighth day of symptoms.

"In my experience, there is a clear suggestion that there was still virus replication [when we made] a late start in treatment," de Jong told Reuters at a conference in Singapore. "In four of my patients, there was very rapid clearance of the virus from the throat and all four survived."

De Jong told the conference audience, "If you can decrease the viral load [with drugs], you can have a good outcome. Even those who are treated late had good results."

But the report didn't mention any other evidence that late treatment can work, besides de Jong's anecdotal findings in a few of his own patients.

De Jong, who treated 17 H5N1 patients in 2004 and 2005, of whom 12 died, agreed with other experts that starting treatment early is still best, Reuters reported.

The United States and many other countries have been stockpiling oseltamivir in the face of the risk that avian flu will spark a pandemic. No one knows how effective the drug will be if the virus evolves into a pandemic strain.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oseltamivir as first-line treatment for H5N1 avian flu (with zanamivir [Relenza] as the second choice). The WHO guidelines do not say that treatment must be started within the first 2 days of illness to be effective.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says oseltamivir and zanamivir have been shown to reduce the duration of seasonal flu by about 1 day, provided treatment is begun within 48 hours of the first symptoms.

See also:

WHO guidelines on pharmacologic management of patients infected with H5N1
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/pharmamanagement/en/index.html

CDC info on indications for antiviral treatment of patients with flu
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/treatment/indications.htm

Culling proceeds in South Korea


SKorea culls 365,000 poultry after 3rd bird flu case in less than a month
The Associated Press
Published: December 13, 2006
SKorea culls 365,000 poultry after 3rd bird flu case in less than a month
The Associated Press
Published: December 13, 2006

SEOUL, South Korea: South Korea completed the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of poultry Wednesday after the country's third reported case of bird flu in a month, an official said.

About 365,000 quails and chickens have been destroyed in Gimje, about 262 kilometers (160 miles) south of Seoul, since Tuesday, a local government official said, asking not to be named citing protocol.

The government confirmed an outbreak of bird flu at a quail farm in the city on Monday.

That brought the total number of poultry culled in the three bird flu cases since last month to more than 1.13 million. More than 770,000 chickens were destroyed as a result of the first two outbreaks.

The virus that caused the latest outbreak was the H5 strain, and most likely H5N1, although this was not immediately confirmed, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The first two cases were caused by the H5N1 virus, which the World Health Organization reports has killed at least 154 people worldwide since late 2003.

The site of the third outbreak is about 18 kilometers (11 miles) south of the first outbreak site.

In the last known outbreak of bird flu in South Korea, in 2003, about 5.3 million birds were culled.

Infections among people have been traced to contact with infected birds, but experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that could create a pandemic among humans.

SEOUL, South Korea: South Korea completed the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of poultry Wednesday after the country's third reported case of bird flu in a month, an official said.

About 365,000 quails and chickens have been destroyed in Gimje, about 262 kilometers (160 miles) south of Seoul, since Tuesday, a local government official said, asking not to be named citing protocol.

The government confirmed an outbreak of bird flu at a quail farm in the city on Monday.

That brought the total number of poultry culled in the three bird flu cases since last month to more than 1.13 million. More than 770,000 chickens were destroyed as a result of the first two outbreaks.

The virus that caused the latest outbreak was the H5 strain, and most likely H5N1, although this was not immediately confirmed, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The first two cases were caused by the H5N1 virus, which the World Health Organization reports has killed at least 154 people worldwide since late 2003.

The site of the third outbreak is about 18 kilometers (11 miles) south of the first outbreak site.

In the last known outbreak of bird flu in South Korea, in 2003, about 5.3 million birds were culled.

Infections among people have been traced to contact with infected birds, but experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that could create a pandemic among humans.

Pandemic Flu Model for British


Bird flu could infect 26 million
Wednesday, 13th December 2006, 08:45
Category: Healthy LivingBird flu could kill almost one million and spread to 26 million Britons in the worst case scenario, a new model has predicted.

The report published by the Journal of The Royal Society Interface warns a pandemic could hospitalise 13 million people and says there is an "urgent need for preparedness and co-ordinated global strategies", labelling the projections "alarming".

A collaboration between Harvard, Los Alamos and Manitoba university, the study claims countries should not concentrate on medicines to combat bird flu because there are not enough anti-viral drugs, designed to suppress the illness, and it would take six months to develop a vaccine that would immunise the population.

The authors say their model shows that simply by isolating bird flu sufferers and reducing human contact, deaths could substantially be reduced.

While it predicts 933,514 deaths, 26 million infections and 13 million patients over the course of a pandemic, when transmission control methods, such as quarantine and isolation are entered into the equation, the number of predicted deaths slump to 660,215.

The number of people infected would drop to 18 million and the number in hospital would be 9.1 million.

However the UK also has stocks of anti-viral drugs, that would be given to treat people with bird flu symptoms, as well as to their relatives to try and prevent the disease spreading.

At its most efficient, the model predicts this would mean just three people would die in a pandemic, although this is highly unlikely.

This week, new figures revealed that Britain had one of the worst MRSA infection rates in the country, casting doubts on how well infection control measures could work in hospitals.

The figure also relies on three quarters of the population having access to anti-viral drugs, whereas Britain is building a stockpile for just 20 per cent of the population.

However, one of the authors, Miriam Nuno, a researcher at Harvard, said the country was dealing with the threat well compared to America.

She said: "It is very apparent that the US is hoping to get enough vaccines to mass-vaccinate the whole population, but the likelihood of that happening is slim.

"Right now the vaccine would take six months to develop, so we need to focus on interventions that do not rely on a vaccine.

"If you carry out very strict measures, you can reduce people to people contact. Hospitals would quarantine patients and many would not go to hospital, but self-isolate - it is about keeping infected people away from others.

"Other simple things could be that people don't go into the office, but work from home."

Ms Nuno said the UK was on the right course of action, but said the real victims of a pandemic could be those in the third world who have little or no stockpiles of antiviral drugs and little hope of getting a vaccine before it is gobbled up by the West.

She continued: "The truth is that all Western countries will get the vaccine first, but a pandemic would be a global problem and we need to work together.

"With many developing countries, all they will be able to do is enforce transmission control measures."

Ms Nuno added that the advantage of the new model was that any country could use it to help form a strategy to combat bird flu because it did not need complex data to make its predictions.

She said: "A lot of the current worked has relied on large simulation models that need precise information, whereas our model just requires demographic data, so it is quite simple for anyone to use."

Copyright © 2006 National News +44(0)207 684 3000

Preps for bird flu by poultry farmers underway in US


WorldPoultry.Net says:
US braces itself for bird flu


// 13 Dec 2006

Avian influenza has yet to strike the US, but in one of the nation's leading poultry producing regions, preparations are being made.

At a bird flu briefing this week, Georgia state veterinarian, Stan Crane, told a room full of poultry experts that Georgia's agricultural response team, which would be in charge of quarantines in an outbreak, is rethinking its method of disposing of infected carcasses, with incineration being preferred to mass burial.
Federal officials and state agricultural leaders had called the meeting to warn chicken farmers in Georgia, the nation's leading poultry producing state, to stay vigilant despite even though the H5N1 virus has not yet been spotted in the US.
"We must always keep our guard up, always look for it," said David Swayne, the director of the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory.
In the US, which produces more than 35 billion pounds of poultry a year, many producers have taken extreme precautions, outfitting visitors with biohazard suits and disinfecting shoes and tires entering the vicinity of each chicken coop.
Although the deadly virus has not infected a human in the US, officials have detected a low-grade strain of the virus in wild birds in Pennsylvania and elsewhere that poses no threat to people. To thwart the spread of the virus, federal authorities have restricted poultry imports from high-risk countries, stepped up efforts to test wild birds and have urged each state to develop its own emergency response plan in case the disease strikes.
"We're planning for the worst," she said, "and hoping for the best."

Monday, December 11, 2006

South Korea's ills



Bird Flu Outbreak In Quail Farm In South Korea


An outbreak of H5N1 bird flu was confirmed at a quail farm in Kimje, South Korea, say officials from the Ministry of Agriculture.

The farm has 270,000 quail. Authorities are currently removing the quail from the farm and have set up a quarantine zone around the area to stem the spread of the disease. All poultry within 500 meters of the farm will be destroyed, say officials.

This is be the country's third outbreak in one month. On November 18th and November 26th there were two outbreaks in two separate chicken farms - both farms are within a 22 km radius of the infected quail farm.

So far, no humans have become ill, say ministry officials.

Approximately 3,000 quail died of bird flu during the weekend.

Since 2003 over 5 million poultry have been destroyed in South Korea, in measures to prevent the spread of bird flu.

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Republic of Korea (English version)

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Muslims asked to get flu shots


Saudi Arabia: Hajj pilgrims need flu shots
-----------------------------------------------
People planning to make the Hajj pilgrimage should get flu shots
beforehand to reduce the risk of a global flu pandemic, say British
doctors. At the end of January 2007, 2 million Muslim pilgrims from
almost every country on earth will converge on Saudi Arabia to visit
Mecca, the final resting place of the Prophet Muhammad.

Although pilgrims see this as a deeply spiritual journey, Aziz
Sheikh, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, has issued
a warning that such a gathering makes the possibility of a global flu
pandemic much more likely. Overcrowding is common during the Hajj,
and Sheikh said epidemiologists think at least one in 3 pilgrims will
develop respiratory symptoms during their stay. That ratio increases
when pilgrims come from economically developing nations.

Since Saudi authorities already require that people entering the
country for the Hajj bring proof of immunization for meningitis,
Sheikh and his colleagues thought that adding flu shots to the
regimen would not be either inconvenient or unacceptable. They also
suggested tighter surveillance to identify newly emerging flu strains
while pilgrims are in the country and international cooperation
overseen by the World Health Organization to assemble the resources
and logistics that will protect the planet's health.

--
ProMED-mail

Will the nuclear plants be safe in pandemic?


NRC to be ready for bird flu
Posted on : Wed, 06 Dec 2006 20:06:00 GMT | Author : Energy News Editor
News Category : Environment

WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 U.S. nuclear officials have issued a plan to maintain safety regulations of nuclear plants if a bird flu pandemic hits the country.

Bird flu was perceived as a serious potential threat as it caused hundreds of human deaths and resulted in millions of animals dead or killed, although the transmission of the virus has waned.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission outlined its response if bird flu does materialize with an estimated 40 percent or more of the workforce being affected for a year to a year and a half.

This is a plan that we hope we never have to implement, NRC Commissioner Jeffrey Merrifield said. But it is prudent to plan ahead and anticipate what actions might be needed and what prioritization of activities must be done in order for the NRC to maintain its essential, core mission of protecting public health and safety.The least important work would be set aside, with the remainder of the workforce allocated to ensuring safety compliance, incident responses and communication internally and with the public.

The NRC will not allow operational safety or security to be jeopardized regardless of the pandemic situation, according to an NRC release. The nuclear industry is devising its own emergency bird flu plan and is discussing its efforts and potential needs with the NRC, the release said.

Copyright 2006 by UPI

Its hard and costly to fight H5N1. Many don't care!



Bird flu experts meet to fight virus, complacency
06 Dec 2006 18:57:33 GMT
Source: Reuters



REUTERS/STAFF


By Alistair Thomson

BAMAKO, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Experts fighting bird flu around the world met on Wednesday to replenish their war chest and plot the next stage of their campaign to control the disease and avert a devastating human flu pandemic.

The three-day meeting in Mali, the fourth global bird flu summit since late last year, includes a donor conference on Friday seeking an extra $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion over 2-3 years to add to $1.9 billion pledged in Beijing last January.

But the meeting began with a warning that complacency threatened to undermine international efforts against bird flu.

"Technical experts are sometimes accused of having overestimated the risks from this disease, or of exaggerating its potential threat," said Modibo Traore, head of the African Union's InterAfrican Bureau for Animal Resources.

"The rampant demotivation that has resulted seems to have affected the main players in the struggle on all continents, and notably the donor community," Traore told the opening session.

The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza began in Asia in 2003 and spread rapidly in early 2006.

It has been detected in more than 50 countries around the world, including eight in Africa, where experts fear veterinary and human health systems are inadequate to contain outbreaks.

"It's not a lot of money: $500 million per year, divided by the population of Africa is less than a dollar each a year," United Nations influenza coordinator David Nabarro told Reuters in the Malian capital Bamako.

So far the virus has killed 154 people who came into contact with sick birds and there are 258 reported cases worldwide.

But worse than the devastating effects on vital poultry industries in poor and densely populated countries, scientists fear the virus could mutate to jump between humans, triggering a human flu pandemic that could kill millions of people.

"The potential costs of an influenza pandemic would be of the order of $1-2 trillion ... and the actual cost of avian influenza thus far has been in the multiple billions of dollars," Nabarro said.

TICKING CLOCK

Ordinary flu kills around 250,000 people around the world each year, but every 20 years or so the virus changes enough to cause a much more deadly pandemic -- the worst in living memory being "Spanish influenza" which killed anywhere from 20 million to 100 million people in 1918 at the end of World War One.

The last pandemic was in 1968 and experts say another pandemic could happen any time.

"There is still a danger and the best solution is to finish with the virus in animals," said Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE).

Scientists say that is most likely to happen in Asia, which has the most infections, but Africa remains a weak link due to poor veterinary and public health services which are likely to give infections more time to spread before being detected.

"The resources need to be mobilised and they need to be targeted at the countries at risk," said Ok Pannenborg, senior health advisor at the World Bank.

The U.N.'s Nabarro was upbeat, saying with the right advice and support African countries could step up their controls to combat bird flu -- and that rich nations would be prepared to foot the $500 million-a-year bill.

"Yes, I think the money will be pledged, because I think the world cares," he said.

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